Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment of the Agriculture Sector in Isabela Province: Basis for Decision Support Platform and Policy Innovation

Abstract

Nowadays, one of the pressing global environmental concerns is climate change and the society has a great interest on the interconnected effects posed by this problem. With climate change, the agriculture sector is not spared from its impacts. In this study, the vulnerability of agriculture sector in Isabela province to climate change was assessed. Data were collected and organized following CIAT methodological guidelines. Results show that in terms of exposure to hazards, Isabela province is highly exposed to typhoon, flood and erosion. On the other hand, the climatic suitability map for rice under current condition showed a moderate to high suitability in the flat and low-elevation areas of the province. The projected 2030 climatic suitability of rice provides an expansion of moderate to high suitability. These are also true with the climatic suitability of corn, both for current and 2030 conditions. Meanwhile, the City of Ilagan and the municipalities of Tumauini, Ramon, Alicia, Angadanan, and Jones have very high adaptive capacities. Reasons of having very high adaptive capacity are due to adequate economic, human and natural capitals. As to vulnerability of rice under current condition, Ilagan City and Divilican revealed a very low vulnerability index while most of the LGUs have high to very high vulnerability. For corn, almost all the LGUs revealed a moderate to very high vulnerability indices, both current and 2030 conditions. Finally, Ilagan City and San Mateo have very low vulnerability to climate change. In this study, the LGUs’ adaptive capacity has an inverse relationship with its vulnerability, that is, the higher the adaptive capacity, the lower the vulnerability, and vice versa.